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Friday
Jan102020

Analysis: Texas elections aren’t starting now — they’re already running at full speed

                    By Ross Ramsey

                    January 6, 2020

 

A bunch of Texas politicians will soon find out they are not destined for elected office. Not this time, anyway.

The Democratic and Republican primaries, the first round of the 2020 election cycle, loom. Early voting starts in just six weeks, on Feb. 18. Election day for the primaries is two weeks after that.

Dozens of candidates will learn sometime after sundown March 3 that this is not their year.

Some of this year’s primary races are absurdly crowded. It starts at the top, with all of those Democrats in the hunt for the presidential nomination. In the next race, a dozen Democrats are competing to face U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in November.

A total of 89 Republicans and Democrats are vying for six open seats in the state’s congressional delegation; only a dozen will move forward after the primaries and the May primary runoffs. Do the math on that: At most, only 12 people can move to the general election in those six races, which leaves 77 sitting on the couch, watching someone else getting elected in November.

But this is about the political year ahead — not just the losers-in-waiting.

That Senate race is important to both parties, and not just because both want the seat. Races for the U.S. House are next on the ballot. Republican incumbents in six of those decided not to seek reelection. Chances are that three of those will effectively be decided in the March primary, and three will be competitive when the herds are culled to just one Democrat and one Republican in each race.

State legislative seats are usually of interest only in Texas. But Democrats believe they might be able to win nine more seats in the Texas House, which would be enough to give them a majority. That’s mainly a state interest, because it would split the Legislature — the Senate is safely Republican — and force the GOP to negotiate with Democrats on issues like the state budget, public education, college tuition, social issues and so on. It would put a Democrat in the speaker’s chair for the first time since Pete Laney, D-Hale Center, lost his majority in the 2002 elections.

So far, that’s interesting but not essential to people outside of Texas. What turns those out-of-state heads? The political maps that the next Legislature will draw.

Republicans already have a decisive advantage when it comes to maps for the Texas Senate and the Texas House. But a Democratic majority in the Texas House would reduce Republican control over the maps for the Texas congressional delegation.

If the House and Senate can’t agree on maps for the Texas Legislature, a five-member Legislative Redistricting Board will step in to do it for them. That board will have at least four Republicans on it, all reelected in 2018: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Attorney General Ken Paxton, Comptroller Glenn Hegar and Land Commissioner George P. Bush. The speaker of the House, whoever that is, will be in the fifth chair.

But a House-Senate split on maps for Congress skips that panel and goes straight to federal court. That’s a roll of the dice for both parties; the judges could be Republicans or Democrats. But for the Democrats, it’s a chance to take a sure thing from the Republicans, and at the moment, they’re talking like people who are willing to spend money on that possibility.

Elections aren’t the only show in 2020. It’s the year of the census, when Texas and other states count heads and begin divvying up everything from the seats in Congress (early estimates are that we’ll get three more seats on top of the 36 we have now) to resources for highways, health and human services, education, and many other programs on which the federal government spends money. Texans will find out this year whether the property tax “relief” passed by the 86th Legislature is actually relieving.

We’ll also find out what Congress does with the president’s impeachment, and what happens after that. It will set the table for the next round of legislative and congressional battles.

The first step is an election, and it’s going on right now.

 

                    "Analysis: Texas elections aren’t starting now — they’re already running at full speed" was first published at https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/06/texas-elections-already-running-full-speed/ by The Texas Tribune. The Texas Tribune is proud to celebrate 10 years of exceptional journalism for an exceptional state.

Friday
Jan102020

Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020.

                    By Cassandra Pollock and Patrick Svitek

                    December 13, 2019

                    For the first time in years, Republicans and Democrats are acknowledging that the GOP could lose its grip on the Texas House — a turning point that would mark the state’s biggest political shakeup since the chamber last flipped nearly two decades ago.

With the 2020 ballot all but set, both parties are readying their candidates for the 150 state House races, with roughly 30 seats seen as competitive.

As recently as 2017, House Republicans relished in a 95-member majority. But now, Democrats, bolstered by their 12-seat pick-up last year, are effectively only nine away from gaining control of the chamber — and having a larger say in the 2021 redistricting process.

Such a prospect has prompted newfound attention — and, in some cases, alarm — in a state that’s long been considered far out of reach for Democrats. And it’s created an awareness among Republicans, who have comfortably controlled virtually every lever of state government in Texas, that an updated — if not entirely new — playbook is needed.

Democrats still have their work cut out for them. The last time they controlled the House was 2001. In addition to holding onto the 12 seats the party flipped last year, Democrats would need to pick up the additional nine — and this cycle, the GOP says it’s more prepared for the threat than it was in 2018.

Earlier this week, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott told reporters that he was confident all House Republicans will win reelection — and even grow their numbers — "because people are hungry for the results that Republicans have delivered" in Austin.

"One thing that we have found is that when voters realize all the great success we had this past session — of doing things like cutting property taxes, building roads, making communities safer — things like that — the voters respond very positively to that," Abbott said after a speech Thursday in Dallas. "So all that the House members have to do is run on their record. It's a record that sells well with voters because it showed they tended to the needs of voters."

The Battlefield

The battlefield for the House is large. In addition to the 12 seats that Republicans are trying to reclaim from the 2018 midterm election, Democrats are targeting 22 Republican-held seats where Beto O’Rourke, the 2018 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, won or lost by single digits. In 17 of those seats, the Republican incumbents won by fewer than 10 percentage points. Of those 17 seats, there are nine where both O’Rourke won and the incumbent won by single digits — those could be considered Democrats’ highest priorities.

Both parties are again calling North Texas ground zero for several of the House races considered to be in play by both parties, with the Austin and Houston areas also featuring clusters of competitive seats.

Even before the 2020 elections, Democrats have a chance to pick up a seat in the late January special election runoff to fill the seat of former Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond. Democrats were already targeting him before he resigned this fall to take a job with the University of Texas System.

Democrat targets have even grown to include once-unthinkable places like House District 32, where state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, is facing his first challenger from either party since O'Rourke came within 5 points of winning the district.

The Democrat now running against Hunter, Eric Holguin, said the district has become more young and more diverse since the lines were drawn in 2011 — and last year brought into focus Democrats' path to victory.

"In 2018, we were seeing such a seismic shift in our political landscape due to [President Donald] Trump already having been in office a couple years," said Holguin, who ran for Congress last cycle in the area. "Now that we saw the results of what happened in 2018, we could build off from there. We know where the new bar is set at more locally, and we could take it from there instead of not knowing what would happen post-Trump being elected."

Many of the competitive races are playing out in suburban areas that are changing demographically.

Republicans think their candidates can attract voters in those areas based on the pitch that the GOP is a “broad-based party” rooted in good governance and policies.

“The Republican Party [is not] not monochromatic,” said Steve Armbruster, chair of the Williamson County GOP, noting that the local party had recruited three Hispanic Republicans this cycle to challenge incumbent Democrats on the ballot. “The suburban districts are where the battleground is at, but the Republicans are ready for a fight.”

But changing demographics, said state Rep. Celia Israel, an Austin Democrat and the new chairwoman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee, “tell a progressive story” — and as the trend continues, “we’re electing more and more Democrats.”

“Our party is just as diverse as our electorate,” Israel said in a statement. “As these competitive House district change demographically so will their representatives. Our ideas and hopes are just as diverse as our candidates and I can’t wait for them to tell their stories in the coming months.”

Monday marked the last day for candidates to file to run for office. Both parties fielded candidates for all of the targeted seats, and in some battleground races primaries grew to include as many as five candidates.

The Texas GOP applauded its fundraising and candidate recruitment — and made the case again for how Republican leadership in the state has delivered results for Texans.

“During the last Session in Texas, Republicans delivered sorely needed property tax relief for Texans, ensured protecting the border was funded for another biennium, and delivered unprecedented transparency regarding spending taxpayer dollars on lobbyists,” state party chair James Dickey said in a statement. “Texans demand results, not lost jobs and higher taxes.”

Democrats, for their part, hailed the number of candidates they fielded as proof that Texas is the “biggest battleground state in the country,” a common refrain from the party this cycle.

“Republicans see the writing on the wall, and they’re scared,” said Manny Garcia, the executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, in a statement after the filing period closed Monday. “Our Democratic candidates for Texas House are going to take us over the finish line.”

The ground game

In terms of ground efforts, both parties have roughly doubled their staffs compared to what those numbers looked like at the same point last cycle. Both parties are also putting an emphasis on voter registration, with Republicans making a new push to catch up in that category through efforts like the state GOP’s Volunteer Engagement Project and the well-funded Engage Texas super PAC.

On both sides, there are constellations of groups forming that will be responsible for funding the fight for the House. Democrats have allies such as the HDCC and Annie's List, which is hoping to have female nominees in at least 20 of the 29 seats that it believes are in play.

The House battle is also drawing the attention of national Democratic groups such as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, the group led by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder. Since exiting the presidential race, O’Rourke has turned his attention to the turning the state House blue and has already endorsed and campaigned in some races.

On the Republican side, deep-pocketed groups like Texans for Lawsuit Reform and Associated Republicans of Texas have already signaled their plans to again be big players in key races during the 2020 cycle — and have, in some cases, already endorsed certain GOP candidates challenging a Democrat incumbent in competitive seats.

State GOP leaders have also vowed to participate in the fight. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, whose Senate has few competitive races this cycle, has said protecting the House majority is his top priority. And Abbott, the governor, is planning to harness his massive political operation to both defend Republicans and unseat Democrats.

Among House Republicans though, the question of money is a bit more complicated. Typically, the House speaker leads the effort to raise money for members from their party who could use the campaign cash. But the current speaker, Dennis Bonnen has been sidelined after a months-long political drama — and it’s unclear what the retiring Angleton Republican plans to do with the $3 million he put into a political action committee to help defend the House’s GOP majority in 2020.

In the aftermath of Bonnen’s exit from the political stage, some House Republicans have coalesced around a separate effort to protect the majority, though not every GOP member is on board with the latest effort.

What would a Democrat-led House look like?

A win by Democrats would all but guarantee a Democratic speaker. That would translate to Democrats chairing some of the Legislature’s most powerful committees for the first time in years.

Of course, the chamber would still be operating at a disadvantage in passing some party priorities with a GOP governor and a Senate where Republicans outnumber Democrats by seven members.

Beyond that, Texas is on the cusp of another once-in-a-decade redistricting cycle, which involves state lawmakers redrawing districts for Congress, the state House and Senate and the State Board of Education. A House controlled by Democrats could impact that process, though it would still be a predominantly Republican-led one.

State Rep. Chris Turner, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus who represents part of Tarrant County, said that voters in suburban areas are hungry for results that the Republican-led state hasn’t yet delivered on.

“A Democratic House majority will invest in an educated workforce, improve our state's health care system and make state government work for the people of Texas again,” he said in a statement.

 

                    "Democrats could gain control of the Texas House for the first time since 2001. Here are the seats in play in 2020." was first published at https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/13/will-texas-house-turn-blue-after-2020-elections/ by The Texas Tribune. The Texas Tribune is proud to celebrate 10 years of exceptional journalism for an exceptional state.

Friday
Jan102020

Analysis: The Texas Senate will be a quiet zone in a noisy, important election year

                    By Ross Ramsey

                    December 11, 2019

A quick takeaway from the deadline of candidate filings: The Texas Senate is going to be the calmest spot in the state’s electoral ocean in 2020.

Republicans hold the majority in that chamber, and not one of them will face an opponent in next year’s GOP primary.

It’s hard to say whether that’s an exhibition of discipline on the party’s part or a lack of ambition among potential challengers.

It might be a sign of relative tranquility, when you get down to it. Republicans aren’t in serious danger of losing their Senate majority. And the incumbents in that party are closely bound to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a former state senator who wields as much control over his senators as anyone since Bob Bullock.

Patrick doesn’t appear likely to encourage Republican opponents for any GOP incumbents on the 2020 ballot.

There will be at least one new senator, with José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, not seeking another term. Only one Democrat, state Rep. César Blanco, signed up to run for that seat. He would have to be counted as the favorite to replace him in that reliably Democratic district.

Only one Republican — Pete Flores of Pleasanton — is in immediate political peril next year. He won a special election a little more than a year ago in Senate District 19, a 17-county district that includes a large chunk of Bexar County and San Antonio. That chunk accounts for more than half of the district’s population.

Until Flores snuck up and took it away, Democrats had a relatively firm hold on the territory; they’ll fight to take it back, and Flores will try to prove that his victory last year wasn’t a fluke. It’s a swing district, and the outcome could depend on what happens above the state Senate race on the ballot — up there where presidents and U.S. senators and members of Congress joust.

But the election is not going to change the Senate in a significant way. In its current configuration, the Senate has 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats. It’ll take a change in more than one seat to make any difference, and flipping four spots to the minority party would require serious magic.

Anyway, the focus of national, state and local pols in the state is on the Texas House, where a nine-seat change would turn a Republican House into a Democratic one. That would change the bargaining on everything from the state budget to education.

And, of greater interest to the political class, the redrawing of the state’s political districts.

That’s why the national Democrats are interested in the little ol’ Texas House of Representatives: Winning a majority would improve their chance of a less punishing political map for the U.S. House delegation.

They are playing the same game Republican Tom DeLay pulled off in 2003, turning enough seats in a Texas congressional map to change the odds in his party’s favor in Washington.

What the Democrats hope to do would require two long shots.

First, they would have to win a majority in the Texas House. They won 12 seats in 2018, but retaining some of those will require strong defense. And if that works, they’ll still have to add nine more.

Second, the Democrats probably won’t get a map they like from a divided Legislature, but with control of the House, they could block any legislative map, throwing the final artwork to a panel of three federal judges — a so-far unnamed panel that might, possibly, be less inclined to draw a strongly Republican map than the Legislature.

That best-case scenario for Democrats isn’t great, in other words, but it’s better than the worst case: a congressional map devised by a Republican House and Senate and signed by a Republican governor.

Flipping the Senate is too hard and too unlikely, and everybody is leaving it alone. The show — and the real work, for both sides — is in the House.

Maybe state senators — from both parties — will get bored and help out.

 

                    "Analysis: The Texas Senate will be a quiet zone in a noisy, important election year" was first published at https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/11/texas-senate-will-be-quiet-zone-noisy-important-election-year/ by The Texas Tribune. The Texas Tribune is proud to celebrate 10 years of exceptional journalism for an exceptional state.

 

Thursday
Oct312019

Analysis: A race for speaker of the Texas House? Not so fast.

                    By Ross Ramsey

                    October 28, 2019

After the 2008 elections, there was a moment of confusion in Texas politics. Voters had elected 75 Republicans to the Texas House and 74 Democrats. The 150th seat, held before the election by a Republican, was a nail-biter subject to a recount.

If state Rep. Linda Harper-Brown won her North Texas race, Republicans would have a two-vote majority in the state House. But if Bob Romano was declared the winner, the parties would have the same number of members.

Then-Speaker Tom Craddick’s chances at a fourth term were already shaky. Most of the Democratic state representatives weren’t happy with him, and enough of the Republicans — something between a dozen and a dozen-and-a-half — were ready to make a change. At least two Democrats were preparing to run for speaker in the case of a tie. And those restive Republicans were whispering about replacing Craddick in the case of a Republican majority.

Harper-Brown prevailed in the recount — barely: she won by 19 votes out of 40,756 cast — and the Republicans maintained their majority. Eleven of the ABC Republicans (Anybody But Craddick) met to decide who should be their new standard-bearer, and picked one of their own: Joe Straus, who had only been in the Legislature for four years.

His majority came together in a matter of days, but in an almost equally divided House, it took a coalition — most of the Democrats and some of the Republicans — to give the challenger the votes he needed.

Keep that arithmetic in mind as the race to replace House Speaker Dennis Bonnen unfolds. The current party mix is 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats. Republicans hope to hold their advantage after the 2020 elections, while Democrats, encouraged by their 12-seat gain in 2018, hope to win back the majority they lost in 2002.

The next race for speaker, a certainty with Bonnen’s announcement that he won’t seek reelection, probably won’t happen quickly — unless Bonnen can be persuaded to leave office earlier than January 2021 to allow a faster switch to new management.

Why? If the House majority isn’t overwhelming — in either party’s favor — it will probably take a coalition to replace Bonnen. A Republican speaker will need some Democratic votes to win; a Democrat, some Republicans. And until they know what the mix will be, uncertainty will prevent most state representatives from committing to any speaker candidate.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Bonnen came out of the session in great political shape, telling reporters that he wanted to keep House members from campaigning or working against colleagues in the coming political year and threatening to punish those who didn’t. Everyone was on their way to a contentious presidential election year, followed by a session where drawing new political maps would be a top chore.

Voting for a speaker was something they wouldn’t have to worry about. But Bonnen stepped, figuratively speaking, into an open manhole, trashing fellow members in conversation with a political activist who was not an ally. And when a recording of that hour-long conversation became public, it only took a week for Bonnen’s support in the House to fade out.

The list of people who might succeed Bonnen probably starts with the list of people he beat last time in a race that started slow, percolated for about a year, and then sprinted to a close. Straus announced in October 2017 that he wouldn’t seek a sixth term. A couple of aspirants announced quickly, and more trickled in as the year went on — especially after the primary elections were over.

But nobody could put together 76 votes. Bonnen, who had demurred when he was first mentioned as a candidate, became a late entry. Within a matter of days after the 2018 general election, he had the votes he needed.

And a year later, the House is back where it was two years ago, looking for new leadership with a tough election ahead, doing the preparatory work for a redistricting session with high political stakes, a huge budget to write and other big issues to confront.

And no strong incentive to hurry.

 

                    "Analysis: A race for speaker of the Texas House? Not so fast." was first published at  by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

Thursday
Oct312019

After a steady rise, Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen's fall came fast

                    By Cassandra Pollock

                    October 22, 2019

                 By Monday afternoon, Dennis Bonnen had seen the signs that the end was likely in sight.

The Republican House speaker had just finished a two-hour conversation at the Texas Capitol with some of the chamber’s most influential members — and the news they had delivered was bleak: Bonnen had lost their support.

In just a few hours, Bonnen knew, a joint statement by those five Republicans — four of them powerful committee chairmen — would be released to the public, solidifying the harsh reality that the first-term speaker who had spent roughly half his life in the House would not be back for another round. The statement would say that after the speaker had been secretly recorded suggesting a hardline conservative activist enlist his group to politically target fellow Republicans and bragging about making life hard at the Capitol for local leaders, “trust and confidence in the Speaker has significantly eroded.”

Still, Bonnen kept fighting. His Twitter account soon unleashed a 12-part thread defending the harsh remarks Bonnen and one of his top allies made about local officials during that June meeting with Michael Quinn Sullivan.

“I am NOT anti-local govt, but I AM a pro-taxpayer conservative,” Bonnen wrote. “It is the large, progressive, urban local govts that have been working against TX taxpayers for years.”

Perhaps without Bonnen even realizing it, that explanation resembled almost every other response that had come from his team since the political fallout — it was heavy on the excuses and light on the apologies.

That defiant posture is what defined Bonnen throughout a months long scandal that many say was of the speaker’s own making. And it’s what ultimately pushed more than 30 House Republicans to say they could no longer support the speaker to continue leading their chamber. The five Republicans' statement went out soon after Bonnen's tweets, making it clear Bonnen wasn't likely to survive. He announced the next morning that he wouldn't run for reelection.

Before his rapid ascent to the speaker’s gavel in 2018, Bonnen, who did not return a request for comment Tuesday, was known largely as a savvy fighter who, at times, let his pugnacious tendencies get the better of him. But after winning unanimous election as speaker in January, Bonnen had appeared to polish his sharper edges.

Bonnen’s fierce loyalty to the chamber he practically grew up in seemed to overshadow his typical dramatics. Bonnen’s determination to unify Republicans and Democrats to pass comprehensive reforms to the state’s school finance and property tax systems seemed to outweigh his sometimes sharp tongue. And Bonnen’s insistence that the members — not the speaker — drove the business of the House seemed to come before his personal, sometimes petty, preferences.

Because of that, Bonnen closed out the 2019 session of the Legislature, members said at the time, with much of the same widespread support that had swept him into office in the first place. And as members were readying to pack up their offices and head home to loved ones, the speaker took a stance on the upcoming elections in, perhaps, an effort to continue that camaraderie.

“The consequence is simple,” Bonnen told reporters on the last day of the 86th session in May. “If you choose to campaign against any of your sitting colleagues, I will weigh in against you. And if I am fortunate enough to continue to be speaker, you will find yourself not well positioned in the next session.”

The speaker’s comments seemed simple enough. And although some members had questions about the exact rules of engagement — how would Democrats, fresh off a dozen-seat pickup in 2018, go about trying to flip another nine to gain control of the lower chamber? could Republicans fight back in an effort to maintain their party’s grip on the House? — answers to those, they were sure, would come sooner rather than later.

But first, they said, it was time for vacation. And while the lawmakers were heading out to begin recovering from their 140 days in the Capitol, the combative Bonnen seemed to return.

“Let me tell you what I’ll do for you”

One day after Bonnen issued his warning, he and Sullivan, the hardline conservative activist who heads the take-no-prisoners political group Empower Texans, ran into one another at the Houston airport.

The two longtime figures in Texas politics weren’t exactly friends. Sullivan and his group had spent much of the past several months criticizing the new speaker over his leadership style, blaming Bonnen in part for what they called a “purple session.” And Bonnen, in response, had told reporters the day before that neither Sullivan nor his organization could ever be appeased — and that Bonnen “sure as hell” would not spend time trying. A meeting between the two was suggested at that airport run-in, and it was soon set for June 12 at the Texas Capitol.

Both sides came into the meeting wary. Sullivan later wrote that he was worried about past "lies and malicious attacks" from Bonnen, prompting him to secretly record the meeting. Bonnen, meanwhile, asked a top lieutenant, state Rep. Dustin Burrows, a Lubbock Republican who at the time chaired the House GOP Caucus, to join — a move the speaker later described as asking for help to explain to Sullivan “the need for Empower Texans to not engage in Republican primaries this election cycle.” The three started by chatting about Sullivan’s recent travels to Europe. Then they turned to politics.

“I’m trying to win in 2020,” Bonnen said. “Let’s not spend millions of dollars fighting in primaries when we need to spend millions of dollars trying to win in November.”

The speaker continued, “If you need some primaries to fight in, I will leave and Dustin will tell you some that we would love it if you fought in them.”

That idea — seemingly a direct violation of the rules Bonnen gave the House — might have been enough to sow outrage among members. But then came the insults. State Rep. Jon Rosenthal, a Houston Democrat, “makes my skin crawl,” Bonnen said before mentioning a joke his chief of staff had previously made about the freshman’s sexuality. The room erupted in laughter before Bonnen resumed speaking.

“We’ve got Michelle Beckley, who’s vile, OK?” he told Sullivan, describing another freshman Democrat.

Bonnen then shifted his focus. “I need you firing harder that way than these ways,” he told Sullivan. “And let me tell you what I’ll do for you — real quick, you need to hear what I want to do for you.”

“I don’t need anything,” Sullivan replied.

“Well, no you do,” Bonnen insisted before making his offer: long-denied media credentials that would allow certain Empower Texans employees access to the House floor.

“If we can make this work,” Bonnen said, “I’ll put your guys on the floor next session.”

Before long, Bonnen left the room, suggesting multiple times that Burrows had “a list” of members to give to Sullivan for the purposes of politically targeting them in the 2020 primaries. Burrows eventually listed off some of the House members who had voted against a measure to ban cities and counties from using taxpayer dollars to lobby the Legislature — a measure he said would be the “benchmark for next session.”

Burrows mentioned 10 House Republicans that Sullivan’s group could politically target: Tan Parker of Flower Mound, Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Steve Allison of San Antonio, Trent Ashby of Lufkin, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, Drew Darby of San Angelo, Kyle Kacal of College Station, Stan Lambert of Abilene, John Raney of College Station and Phil Stephenson of Wharton.

Sullivan later wrote that he left the meeting that day with immediate calls out to his lawyers — gathering advice and plotting his next steps.

“You would know better”

Sullivan went public with his blow-by-blow account of the meeting July 25 by publishing a post on one of Empower Texans’ websites under the headline “Bonnen’s Backroom Offer.”

The story sent a shockwave through the political sphere as members wondered whether any of it was true. Was this just another attempt by Sullivan to remain relevant? Could Bonnen have really said that? And, perhaps most importantly: Was there a recording of it?

To that last question, the speaker and his team appeared to gamble that the answer was no.

“Hopefully, you know better than to believe anything Michael Quinn Sullivan would bother to say,” Bonnen said to a House member in a voicemail shortly after the news broke. “I did meet with him to tell him he should not campaign against any Republican in the primary — um, obviously the opposite of what he’s trying to present.”

Bonnen or people from his office dispatched several calls along those lines, assuring members that they were not on a political target list of any sort and reminding them that Sullivan’s credibility could not be trusted. Others, meanwhile, never heard from the speaker.

On Friday evening, over 24 hours after Sullivan’s allegations first went public, Bonnen emailed House Republicans with the subject line “Setting the record straight.” Missing from that email was Sullivan’s explicit allegation about a 10-member political target list. Bonnen ended by saying he looked “forward to vigorously campaigning and supporting every one of you” in the 2020 elections.

But by then, too many questions still hadn’t been answered — and unrest among members in pursuit of the truth seemed to be growing.

The following Monday, Bonnen released a public statement on the matter. That, too, was carefully worded. “Let me be clear,” Bonnen said. “At no point in our conversation was Sullivan provided with a list of target members.” Some began to ask why the speaker wasn’t just explicitly denying the allegations.

“He’ll deny, deny, deny, a little more will come out, then he will dial back his denial and get a little more technical about it,” one person who works closely with multiple Republicans on the alleged target list told The Texas Tribune amid the fallout. “It’s a constant walking back of previous details.”

A few days later, Bonnen’s gamble that there was no audio of the meeting proved to be a mistake. Sullivan revealed he had secretly recorded the meeting and announced he would begin allowing certain Republicans to listen to the audio in his attorney’s office. And later that night, the first Republicans to do so went public with what they heard, which they said largely confirmed Sullivan’s allegations.

“Bonnen was not truthful about a list not being provided,” state Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands, said after listening to the recording.

Bonnen, along with various other Republicans and Democrats, called on Sullivan over the next several days to release his entire recording of the meeting. Meanwhile, Burrows, the House GOP Caucus chair, stayed silent — to the frustration of some members who wanted answers.

By the first week of August, with rumors swirling and frustration mounting, Bonnen was ready to apologize.

“I was stupid to take a meeting with an individual who has worked hard to divide our House,” Bonnen wrote to House members in an Aug. 6 email. “I said terrible things that are embarrassing to the members, to the House, and to me personally.” The subject line of the email was “I’m sorry.”

Rosenthal, the Houston Democrat, issued a joint statement with the speaker saying he forgave Bonnen for his comments during the meeting. And roughly a dozen Republicans — most of them close Bonnen allies — took to Twitter with carefully worded sentiments suggesting the House could now begin to heal and move on.

But for many members, the apology, which didn’t mention the 10-member target list, rang hollow. Why had it taken so long for an apology that only addressed part of Sullivan’s allegations? A majority of members — Republicans and Democrats — opted to remain silent, either unsure of how to proceed or certain that the other shoe was bound to drop at some point.

Things kept happening. The next day, on Aug. 7, the House General Investigating Committee signaled it would move to launch an investigation into the matter — the first official sign that Bonnen’s troubles could have legal implications. The day after that, on Aug. 8, the Texas Democratic Party sued Sullivan in hopes of obtaining the recording. The next week, the House committee unanimously voted to ask the Texas Rangers, the state’s top law enforcement agency, to investigate the allegations. And a few days later, Burrows made his first move after weeks of silence and resigned as chair of the GOP caucus, aiming to alleviate some pressure that had built up among frustrated Republicans.

A series of political victories

By early September, the scandal had appeared to lose steam. Two mass shootings in the state had happened within weeks of each other, prompting the media and lawmakers to turn their focus in that direction. The investigation by the Rangers was — and remained as of Tuesday — ongoing. Sullivan was refusing to release his recording to the public, despite a growing number of lawmakers calling on him to do so.

Meanwhile, Bonnen was pulling off a series of smaller perceived victories, prompting those around him — and perhaps even the speaker himself — to think the situation could be turned around.

Inside the chamber, Burrows’ resignation had set off a vice chair election within the caucus. The two candidates in the race, some members suggested, represented the two fractures among Republicans — those who were still with Bonnen and those who were not. Jim Murphy of Houston, who was perceived to be the speaker’s preferred candidate for the job, won.

Days before Murphy’s victory, Bonnen’s hometown county GOP voted down overwhelmingly a motion calling for the speaker to resign immediately. The measure was similar to what several other county parties had already passed in the weeks since the drama took shape. The Brazoria County Republican Party voted 23-9 against the resolution, indicating that the speaker still had support among a majority of his local precinct chairs.

That weekend, Bonnen’s political standing was again tested among the Texas GOP’s State Republican Executive Committee at an already-scheduled meeting. A resolution calling for the House GOP Caucus to consider “selecting a new Endorsed Republican Speaker Candidate” was ultimately watered down, though the vote on whether to add stronger language back in narrowly failed by two votes. The 64-member body passed language that simply demanded “both truth and transparency by all parties involved.”

Bonnen appeared to be on somewhat of a winning streak — until a month later, when Sullivan announced he would finally release the audio.

“The caucus needs to get control of this”

The recording was made public Oct. 15, unleashing a tide of opposition to Bonnen that couldn’t be overcome.

The audio largely confirmed what Sullivan had first alleged in late July. But Bonnen again dismissed the matter, casting what happened during that meeting as “nothing more than a political discussion.”

“The problem is that I had it with that guy,” Bonnen said in a statement. “With clear evidence now disproving allegations of criminal wrongdoing, the House can finally move on.”

The House did not move on.

As the reality of the recording continued to sink in, a small but growing number of members began re-upping their disapproval, with some calling for Bonnen to resign immediately and others suggesting they could not support the speaker moving forward. The calls came from hardline conservatives aligned with Empower Texans and members of the alleged 10-person target list. Most of Bonnen’s allies, meanwhile, remained conspicuously silent.

On Thursday morning, a signal came from an unexpected place. State Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, received a call from U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, a former governor of Texas who was visiting his home state with President Donald Trump.

Trump had been mentioned on the recording. Bonnen told Sullivan that the president was “killing us in the urban-suburban districts” as the GOP tried to hold on to control of the state House. Now Trump’s camp had a message.

“I don’t know if it was so much Trump as the Trump campaign,” Smithee said, when asked who prodded Perry to call him. “They felt like the whole [Bonnen] thing was a distraction.”

“You all need to get it resolved,” he said Perry told him. “The caucus needs to get control of this.”

The discontent continued to solidify into Friday, when the House GOP Caucus met officially for the first time since the drama began.

What was supposed to be a 45-minute, closed-door discussion among members turned into a roughly four-hour one. And as members emerged from the meeting, the caucus released a statement condemning both the speaker’s and Burrows’ remarks at the June 12 meeting.

Bonnen, according to those in the room, had started the meeting with an offer for the caucus to vote on a resolution calling for his resignation. The move, which some said was unexpected, showcased a tactful Bonnen who thought he knew the levers of power and the institution of the House well enough to save himself. Bonnen withdrew that motion — no vote on such a measure was taken — and after hours of debate, which at times got testy among members, the caucus adjourned, some members felt, even more divided than when it started the meeting.

On Monday, calls for Bonnen to step aside resumed, and the blow that opened the floodgates happened that night when the five influential members — Four Price of Amarillo, Dan Huberty of Houston, Lyle Larson of San Antonio, Chris Paddie of Marshall and John Frullo of Lubbock — issued a joint statement saying they could no longer support the speaker.

By Tuesday morning, as some members who had been on the bubble were eagerly issuing their statements, it happened: Bonnen, dogged by the months-long fallout, declared he would not seek reelection to his House seat — and, consequently, to the speakership.

In his statement announcing his decision, the student of the lower chamber described how he “care[s] deeply about this body and the work we have accomplished over the years.” He thanked the members who went to him directly and encouraged him not to run again. He did not, however, apologize for anything in the recording.

In the end, even some of Bonnen’s closest allies personally acknowledged that the speaker’s political fate could have been saved with a better game plan when Sullivan’s bombshell dropped in late July. Had Bonnen admitted guilt and avoided the repeated covering up his missteps, some suggested, the speaker might have survived. Had Bonnen worked harder to repair relationships and regain key pools of trust, some suggested, the pressure might not have forced him to retire.

“@RepDennisBonnen could have behaved ethical[ly],” Sullivan tweeted after Tuesday’s announcement. “He could have recanted privately. He instead chose lies, deceit, dishonor, and ruin. He has gone from 3rd constitutional officer in Texas to a cautionary tale.”

 

                    "After a steady rise, Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen's fall came fast" was first published at  by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

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