Running a Texas election while voters are distracted — by politics

Analysis: By Ross Ramsey, The Texas Tribune

Jan. 26, 2022

Texas candidates trying to win voters’ attention and support have some hefty competition this year: The political news happening outside of the 2022 campaigns is more interesting than the elections themselves right now.

From school board meetings to courtrooms to hospitals, the most engaging political issues seem to be taking place everywhere — except on the traditional battlefield.

Early voting is less than three weeks away, and politicians seeking office — especially challengers and newcomers who have little time to tell voters who they are and why they’re running for office — are competing with political problems unlikely to be resolved by the votes cast in the primaries.

After state Rep. Matt Krause, R-Fort Worth, started his since-abandoned campaign for attorney general, he sent Texas public school districts a list of 850 books, asking the superintendents to confirm whether any of them were in use in libraries or classrooms.

That was in late October. Since then, Krause decided to run for Tarrant County district attorney instead of AG. But inquiries like his and from the Legislature in general about what’s being taught about racial history and sociology and about gender have metastasized into loud debates and protests at school board meetings that were already arenas for disputes about how to operate public education during the pandemic. The book banners have also moved on to public libraries.

It’s not that voters aren’t interested; similar arguments turned the Virginia governor’s race Glenn Youngkin’s way late last year. That was a general election; the issue doesn’t ring many “us vs. them” bells in party primaries. It’s a way to get attention, but not a great way to differentiate one Republican from another or one Democrat from another. The primary candidates are unlikely to disagree with one another on these issues.

Gov. Greg Abbott uncorked a set of proposals aimed at parents this week, cribbing from Youngkin and reviving previous efforts to get parents’ rights bills through the Texas Legislature. Among other things, it would give parents the right to decide whether their kids should repeat a grade or be promoted to the next one — an option they currently have only through the third grade.

Texas hospitalizations and death rates have been rising from the omicron variant of COVID-19 as the pandemic begins its third year. Caseloads and positivity rates are dropping, a good sign. Masking and vaccination are persistent subjects for argument and political debate but haven’t caught on as points of division in the primary campaigns. The public is engaged, but the March elections don’t offer the kind of this-or-that choices that arose in 2020 and could return in the November 2022 general election.

The federal courts, not the voting booths, are where disputes over political maps for Texas elections are being fought — as well as challenges to new laws for voting and counting votes in those elections. Those issues are important but out of the hands of candidates.

State judges will ultimately decide whether Attorney General Ken Paxton should be convicted of securities fraud charges that have remained outstanding for more than six years. That’s a campaign issue — his opponents certainly want to talk about it — but his guilt or innocence will be decided by judges, not by voters.

Border security and immigration are a central topic for Republican candidates in Texas, one that will play bigger in election politics in the general election than in the primaries.

And that issue, too, is one for the courts, where the state is being sued by lawyers for migrants who they say were illegally arrested as part of the state’s multibillion-dollar border security effort. That crackdown pits Abbott and other state leaders against President Joe Biden and other Democrats in Washington, D.C.

It’s a loud and partisan political argument about a longstanding issue in Texas and other states on the Mexican border. It’ll be part of the fight in November in the general election, when Democrats and Republicans face off. Voters are interested and engaged.

But despite the primary campaigns already underway, that is, for now, another fight for judges, not voters.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/26/texas-election-redistricting-covid/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Texas politicians are thinking what they think their voters think they should think

Analysis: By Ross Ramsey, The Texas Tribune

Sept. 27, 2021

You might wonder why the top state leaders have supported restrictive voting legislation, ordered audits of elections they won, and passed laws that counter what most Texans think is the proper policy on abortion or guns.

You might or might not like this answer: Those elected officials are doing what they think their voters expect.

Not all voters. Their voters.

It’s fashionable to gripe about polls, but they can expose voter sentiment and reveal, sometimes, why elected officials act the way they do.

When former President Donald Trump, who remains popular with Republican voters in Texas, pushes Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to do something — and does it publicly — it’s risky for Abbott to ignore him.

Trump’s public request for an audit of the 2020 election results in Texas — an election in which he beat Joe Biden by 5.5 percentage points — prompted a quick response: The Texas secretary of state’s office said it would conduct “a full forensic audit” of the election in Collin, Dallas, Harris and Tarrant counties. Trump won in Collin. Biden won in Dallas and Harris. The Democrat also won in Tarrant County, but only by 1,826 votes out of 834,697, according to the secretary of state’s office, Texas’ top election agency.

That year’s election in Texas got a “smooth and secure” assurance from then-Secretary of State Ruth Hughs, and no one has found evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections.

Look at the polls. In an August survey done by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Republicans were much more skeptical than Democrats about the quality of elections.

While 68% of Democrats said they believe ineligible voters cast ballots “never” or “rarely,” 67% of Republicans said illegal votes are cast “sometimes” or “frequently.” Likewise, 91% of Democratic voters in that survey said official U.S. election results are “very” or “somewhat” accurate, while 68% of Republican voters in Texas said those results are “somewhat” or “very” inaccurate.

Numbers like those offer not-so-subtle clues for why the Republican majority in the Legislature followed Abbott in support of a restrictive election and voting bill under the slogan of “election integrity” that Democrats said would make it harder for people of color to vote.

But another survey, the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll in June, adds some context to the governor’s willingness to examine the ashes of the 2020 election. In that poll, voter opinions of Trump were even overall — 47% favorable, 47% unfavorable. But 86% of Republicans in Texas have favorable opinions of Trump, and those are the people who vote in GOP primaries, where Abbott will seek reelection next year. Democrats, as you would expect, had strongly unfavorable views (91%) of the former president.

By heeding Trump’s request, Abbott is sticking with voters who broadly support the former president. He’s also not leaving any space between himself and the most popular Republican in the state.

A new state law makes it legal for most adults to carry handguns without licenses or training, a proposition opposed by 57% of Texans in that June UT/TT Poll and supported by 36% overall. Crack the numbers, though, and you can see the sentiments of Republican constituents of the majority of Texas legislators: 59% support unlicensed carry, while 86% of Democrats oppose it.

Asked in that UT/TT Poll whether they would support “Making abortion illegal after 6 weeks of pregnancy except in the case of a medical emergency,” voters split, 44% in favor, 46% opposed. That proposal is now one of the strictest anti-abortion laws in the country — a law that makes abortion illegal in Texas after cardiac impulses are evident, usually at about six weeks — and is being fought in the courts. But the polling offers a clear view to what lawmakers were seeing: While only 15% of Democrats said they would support that six-week limit, 74% of Republicans supported it.

So did the Legislature, with only two Democrats joining with all of the Republicans in favor.

And some people think politicians don’t read polls.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/27/texas-elections-abortion-guns-legislature/.

The partisan debate over voting laws is a prologue to redistricting

By Ross Ramsey, The Texas Tribune

Aug. 30, 2021

The 2022 elections in Texas favor Republican candidates. They haven’t lost a statewide election for more than a quarter of a century, and they’ve been in the majority of the Texas House and Senate for two decades. Republicans quashed Democratic efforts to gain ground in the 2020 elections.

All that’s left is to fortify their position, a two-step exercise that starts with restrictions on voting laws, an effort nearing completion in the Legislature’s ongoing special session, and ends with new political maps based on the 2020 census, which will be the subject of a special session after the current one.

The stakes were evident a year ago, when Democrats were pouring money into legislative races and boasting in advance that they would gain enough seats in the Texas House to force bipartisan compromise on redistricting and other issues. There was even some very loopy fantasizing that the two parties could end up with the same numbers in the House if Democrats were able to win eight of the seats they had targeted.

It didn’t happen. Republicans won the day, the year and the chance to draw the political maps for the next decade. Now they’re just cashing in their winnings.

First, they’re going after election practices used in Harris County in 2020 that turned out to be particularly popular with voters of color, like drive-thru voting and 24-hour early voting. The legislation that shot out of the Senate and then remained largely unscratched in the House on Thursday and Friday would outlaw those practices, make it illegal for election officials to send vote-by-mail applications to voters who haven’t asked for them, and tighten voter ID requirements at the polls.

That’s the legislation that prompted House Democrats to decamp to Washington, D.C., for more than a month this summer. The U.S. House passed a voting rights bill and the Texans claimed some credit for that, but they failed to stop the Republican juggernaut, which is now within days of getting the changes in voting law it has been seeking all year.

Redistricting was all the talk before the 2020 election, and the population counting that feeds redistricting went the way it was expected to go: Texas grew quickly, and people of color led the way. That counting was delayed by the pandemic, but when the numbers came out this month, some of the trends were even stronger than expected.

Texas grew like we all knew it would, especially in cities and suburbs. That growth was almost entirely driven by people of color, who accounted for 95% of the additions.

The number of Hispanics in Texas is slightly below the number of non-Hispanic white people in the state, a ratio expected to flip in the next year or two. And those non-Hispanic white Texans are 39.8% of the population now, meaning 3 of every 5 residents of the state are people of color.

How those Texans are represented will be a key part of the redistricting debate — not a new factor, but because of the major shift in the numbers, one that is even more compelling now to legislators and judges than it was in past debates.

Another will be the geographic splits as the state’s population is increasingly compressed into a triangle of major metros, with Dallas-Fort Worth at the top, Houston at the bottom right and San Antonio-Austin at the bottom left. Fewer than 10% of Texans live in the state’s 190 least-populated counties. Almost 40% live in the four most-populous counties, and two-thirds live in just 14 counties.

When you look at a post-election map of Texas, it looks like the state is overwhelmingly red, with some splotches of blue here and there. But the blue parts generally have more people. In 2020, 10 of the 14 most-populous counties voted for Democrat Joe Biden over Republican Donald Trump, even as Trump was winning statewide.

For politicians drawing the maps, that means figuratively going house by house, voter by voter, trying — given that it’s a Republican Legislature — to collect enough Republican voters into enough districts to keep the GOP’s hold on state government, and its federal representatives, for another 10 years.

Election bills come up every year, but in normal times, redistricting only comes up once a decade. The fight over who can vote, and when, and with what proof has made for a nasty and partisan summer.

It’s just the warmup act.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/30/texas-voting-laws-redistricting/.

Texas House Republicans vote to track down absent Democrats and arrest them if necessary

By Patrick Svitek and Cassandra Pollock, The Texas Tribune

July 13, 2021

"Texas House Republicans vote to track down absent Democrats and arrest them if necessary" was first published by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans — and engages with them — about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.

A showdown in the Texas House was locked into place Tuesday after the chamber voted overwhelmingly to send law enforcement after Democrats who left the state a day earlier in protest of a GOP priority elections legislation.

More than 50 House Democrats left Monday for Washington, D.C., to deny the chamber a quorum — the minimum number of lawmakers needed to conduct business — as it takes up voting restrictions and other Republican priorities in a special session.

That agenda, set by Gov. Greg Abbott, includes House Bill 3 and Senate Bill 1, the election legislation at hand that would make a number of changes to Texas' voting system, such as banning drive-thru and 24 hour voting options and further restricting the state's voting-by-mail rules. Over the weekend, both House and Senate committees advanced the election bills.

The impact of the House move is unclear since Texas law enforcement lacks jurisdiction in the nation's capital. At a news conference Tuesday afternoon though, Rep. Jim Murphy, a Houston Republican who chairs the House GOP Caucus, acknowledged that state authorities can't force Democrats to return.

"We want them to come back — that’s our message," Murphy said.

Meeting shortly after 10 a.m., the House quickly established that it lacked the two-thirds quorum required to do business, with only 80 of 150 members participating in a test vote.

Then Rep. Will Metcalf, R-Conroe, chair of the House Administration Committee, moved to issue what is known as a “call of the House” to try to regain quorum. That motion passed 76-4. Metcalf offered another motion, asking that “the sergeant at arms, or officers appointed by him, send for all absentees … under warrant of arrest if necessary," effectively making the missing Democrats legislative fugitives. That motion also passed 76-4.

Metcalf's motions were opposed by four Democrats who were present on the House floor Tuesday morning: Reps. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, Tracy King of Batesville, Eddie Morales Jr. of Eagle Pass and John Turner of Dallas.

Morales told the Tribune later Tuesday that he stayed in Austin because he thinks his "constituency expects me to stay behind."

"I believe that my efforts would be best if I stuck around here and fought the fight here," he said, adding that he supported his Democratic colleagues who had left the state.

Under a call of the House, according to chamber rules, all entrances or doors leading out of the hall are locked, and members are not permitted to leave without permission in writing from the speaker.

Morales said members had been told informally that House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, planned to excuse lawmakers daily in the afternoons as long as the chamber is under a call of the House.

"We don't have to be here 24/7," he said.

Around 2:30 p.m., Phelan told members that the chamber would stand at ease until 11 a.m. Wednesday and released them for the day as he handed out permission slips for them to exit the chamber.

After Metcalf's motions passed, Rep. Tony Tinderholt, R-Arlington, sought to move to strip absent Democrats of their committee leadership posts if they do not return by noon Wednesday. The motion did not immediately get a vote, and in a subsequent exchange with Rep. Morgan Meyer, R-Dallas, Phelan said committee chairs and vice chairs cannot be removed from their positions under the current chamber rules.

Earlier Tuesday, Abbott said in a radio interview that any Democrats who fled the state should lose their committee leadership posts.

"Of course any Democrat who is a member of any leadership, such as a chairman of a committee — they should be losing their job," Abbott told Lubbock radio host Chad Hasty.

Meanwhile, House Democrats held a news conference Tuesday morning in D.C. reiterating their intention to stay outside of the state through the end of the special session.

Rep. Chris Turner, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus, said any negotiations about Democrats returning to Austin would have to start with Abbott reversing his veto of funding for the legislative branch.

Democrats are challenging the governor in court over that veto, which Abbott issued after two of his priority bills — including the election legislation — died after House Democrats walked out of the chamber in the final hours of the regular session. Funding for the Legislature, staffers and legislative agencies is set to run out Aug. 31.

By early Tuesday afternoon, members on the House floor were grouped around desks or visiting with Phelan near the front of the chamber.

Asked whether there was tension among members, Morales said he did not sense any.

"It could be the relationships that I have built across the aisle, but I didn't sense that tension," he said. "Everyone is coming up to me and thanking me, even though they know I'm against [HB 3]."

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/13/texas-democrats-walkout-voting-bill-arrest/.

Texas lawmakers are back for a special session. Here’s what you should know.

By Izz Scott LaMagdeleine and Raven Harper, The Texas Tribune

July 8, 2021

Texas lawmakers are back in Austin on Thursday for the beginning of a special legislative session, where legislators are set to revive a controversial elections bill that would impose new restrictions on voting.

Over the last few days, we’ve solicited readers’ questions about the special session and the voting legislation that Republican lawmakers are expected to bring up again. These are the answers to those questions. 

What is the special session and why is it happening in Texas?

In the Legislature, a special session is when lawmakers convene outside the regular session usually to complete unfinished tasks for the year, or address special topics and emergencies. In Texas, special sessions are only to be called by the governor.

Gov. Greg Abbott called a special session of the Texas Legislature, which started July 8 and is set to last up to 30 days, to address bills that died at the end of the regular legislative session like the election and bail bills. This comes after the regular 87th legislative session, which ended on May 31.

How long will the special session last?

We don’t know. Special sessions can last up to a maximum of 30 days, but there is no minimum. There is also no limit to the number of special sessions a governor can call in between regular legislative sessions.

The special session that started July 8 is one of at least two expected this year, with a later one coming in the fall on redistricting and the spending of federal COVID-19 relief funds.

What is on the agenda?

There are 11 items on the agenda that lawmakers can discuss. They include:

Bail overhaul

Elections

Border security

Social media censorship

Legislative branch funding

Family violence prevention

Limiting access to school sports teams for transgender students

Abortion-inducing drugs

An additional payment for retired Texas teachers

Critical race theory

Other budgetary issues

What about the power grid? Will anything else come up during this special session?

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s agenda for the first special session does not include anything about the state’s electric grid, which was exposed as deeply vulnerable during February’s winter storm that left millions without power.

But Abbott can still decide to expand the agenda and include the power grid as a topic for lawmakers to tackle.

Will lawmakers consider redistricting in the special session that starts July 8?

Redistricting has not been listed on the agenda for this month’s special session. However, it is expected to be addressed during a later session this fall.

Would the voting legislation from the regular session have significant effects on people's ability to vote? What does the legislation actually do?

Many readers asked about what the bill does, who it affects, and how likely it is to become law.

The final version of the bill from the regular session that ended in May would have created new limitations for early voting and further tightened voting by mail rules in a state where that voting option is already fairly limited. Republican lawmakers have said they will change some of the most controversial aspects of the bill, like provisions that would have limited early voting hours on Sundays and made it easier to overturn an election. But Democrats are worried conservatives will push even harder during the special session, where they might have more time.

“The risk that comes with some of the proposed restrictions is how they might compound the hurdles marginalized people already face in making themselves heard at the ballot box,” Tribune reporter Alexa Ura said in her Reddit discussion.

In its opening proposal for the special session, the House appeared to already have expanded the restrictions it passed during the regular session. House Bill 3 embraces several of the Senate’s earlier restrictions, including two targeting Harris County’s voting initiatives, and a new ID requirement for mail-in voting.

Could some of the voting restrictions disenfranchise Republican voters?

There are questions about what kind of impact Republicans’ restrictions may have on their own voters. Tribune reporter Alexa Ura said in her Reddit discussion said the clearest example of this is mail-in voting, which is a method of voting that was traditionally used by more conservative voters. Ura noted that more Democratic voters took the opportunity to vote by absentee ballot in 2020, but it is not clear if that trend will continue in elections after the pandemic.

Could Texas Democrats break quorum by walking out again to stop the elections bill from passing?

The Democrats’ staged walkout during the regular session prompted a flood of national attention. They could do this again during the special session, and Democratic members have been clear this option is on the table.

But a quorum break only goes so far, Tribune reporter Alexa Ura said in her Reddit discussion. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott can always just continue calling special sessions.

How popular are proposed voting restrictions among Republican voters in Texas?

While the Tribune does not have polling on the voting restrictions considered during the regular legislative session, recent polling showed that a large majority of Republican registered voters want voting rules to be more strict. Overall, 35% of registered voters last month said they would make voting rules more strict, while 29% would leave them as is and 26% would loosen them.

But, Tribune reporter Alexa Ura noted in the Reddit AMA, "only a small slice of the state's registered voters believe ineligible voters frequently cast ballots in Texas elections."

"Even among Republicans, a minority of voters — 31% — believe ineligible votes are frequently cast," Ura said. "In Texas, and nationally, GOP efforts to enact new voting restrictions have been largely built on claims that elections must be safeguarded from fraudulent votes, even though there is no evidence of widespread fraud."

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/08/texas-special-session-greg-abbott/.